An introduction to systematic reviews of prognosis and prognostic factors

Article type
Authors
Moons C1, Williams K2, Ridley G3, Hayden J4, Riley R5, Altman D5, Woolfenden S6
1Julius Center, UMC Utrecht Netherlands
2Cochrane Collaboration Steering Group; Cochrane Child Health Field; Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group; Cochrane Developmental, Psychosocial and Learning Problems Group, Australia
3Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group, Australia
4Prognosis Methods Group, Canada
5Prognosis Methods Group, England
6Prognosis Methods Group, Australia
Abstract
Objectives:

This workshop will introduce participants to systematic reviews of prognosis and prognostic studies. We will discuss challenges with this type of review and help participants formulate a prognostic review question. We will introduce methods and resources for conducting a systematic review of prognostic studies using published examples and exercises.

Description:

Prognosis is a description of the probable course or prediction of the outcome of a health condition over time. Characteristics or factors associated with, or determining, the course of a health condition are an important consideration for prognosis. Healthcare professionals may use prognostic information to educate or inform the management of their patients. Prognostic evidence requires systematic and transparent synthesis similiar to research on the effectiveness of interventions. There are several challenges unique to prognostic reviews, although basic principles to reduce bias and random error are similar. This workshop will discuss three related prognosis questions: • ‘What is the most likely course of this health condition?’ (average/overall prognosis); • ‘What factors are associated with, or determine outcome?’ (prognostic factors); and • ‘Are there risk groups who are likely to have different outcomes?’ (prognostic prediction models). We will introduce methods and resources for planning a systematic review of prognostic studies.