Assessing the impact of climate change on Eastern equine encephalitis virus in Canada.

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Corrin T1, Ackford R1, Mascarenhas M1, Waddell LA1
1Public Health Agency of Canada

Background: Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that is primarily found in North America and the Caribbean. Over the past decade there has been an increase in virus activity, including large outbreaks in human and horse populations. Predicted climate change is expected to affect the range of mosquitos including vectors of EEEV, which may alter disease risk, posing a public health concern.

Methods: A scoping review (ScR) was prioritized to identify and characterize the global evidence on EEEV. A thorough search was conducted in relevant bibliographic databases and government websites. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts for relevance and the characteristics of relevant papers were extracted using a uniformly implemented data collection form. The study protocol was developed a priori and reporting follows the PRISMA-ScR guidelines.

Results: The ScR included 718 relevant research articles. The majority of the articles originated from North America (97%) between 1933 and 2019. EEEV has been identified in 35 species of mosquitos, over 200 species of birds, various domestic animals, wild mammals, reptiles, and amphibians. Articles identified in this ScR primarily covered three topic areas: epidemiology of hosts and vectors (344 articles) including surveillance (138), pathogenesis of EEEV in hosts (193), and in vitro studies characterizing EEEV (111). Fewer articles evaluated the accuracy of diagnostic tests (63), the efficacy of mitigation strategies (62), transmission dynamics (56), treatment of EEEV in hosts (10), societal knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions (4), and economic burden (2). No predictive models or research on climate change impacts on EEEV were identified.

Conclusions: Despite the lack of direct evidence or predictive models on EEEV, the projected impact of climate change on mosquito populations could result in the spread of EEEV into previously unaffected areas and could change the burden of EEEV in currently affected areas. Pubic health should be prepared to responds and synthesis research provides a foundation for evidence-based decision-making.