Can large language models replace humans in the systematic review process? Evaluating GPT-4’s efficacy in screening and extracting data

Article type
Authors
Khraisha Q1, Put S2, Kappenberg J3, Warraitch A1, Hadfield K1
1Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland; School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
2Department of Education University of York, UK, York, UK
3School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Abstract
Systematic reviews are vital for guiding practice, research, and policy, yet they are often slow and labour-intensive. Large language models (LLMs) could speed up and automate systematic reviews, but their performance in such tasks has yet to be comprehensively evaluated against humans, and no study has tested GPT-4, the biggest LLM so far. This pre-registered study uses a ‘human-out-of-the-loop’ approach to evaluate GPT-4’s capability in title/abstract screening, full-text review, and data extraction across various literature types and languages. Although GPT-4 had accuracy on par with human performance in some tasks, results were skewed by chance agreement and dataset imbalance. Adjusting for these caused performance scores to drop across all stages: for data extraction, performance was moderate, and for screening, it ranged from none in highly balanced literature datasets (~1:1) and moderate in those datasets where the ratio of inclusion to exclusion in studies was imbalanced (~1:3). When screening full-text literature using highly reliable prompts, GPT-4’s performance was more robust, reaching ‘human-like’ levels. While our findings indicate that, currently, substantial caution should be exercised if LLMs are being used to conduct systematic reviews, they also offer preliminary evidence that, for certain review tasks delivered under specific conditions, LLMs can rival human performance.